September 26 2025

Mortgage application activity technically hit another long-term high last week, but that's only because it was riding the coattails of the previous week's stellar momentum. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 19, total volume rose 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 0.1% unadjusted. The Refinance Index increased 1% from the previous week and is running 42% higher than the same week one year ago. The modest improvement was likely driven by the lower rates available early in the survey period. As rates have snapped back to slightly higher levels, it makes good sense to see things level-off. "Interest rates generally have moved up following the FOMC meeting last week but remain in a range that is favorable for many borrowers,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. Purchase applications were similarly steady, with the seasonally adjusted index up 0.3% and the unadjusted index down 1% while remaining 18% stronger than a year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 60.2% of total applications. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share decreased to 8.9%. The FHA share of total applications fell to 15.7%, while the VA share rose to 17.5%. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.34% (from 6.39%) | Points: 0.57 (from 0.54) 15yr Fixed: 5.70% (from 5.63%) | Points: 0.69 (from 0.58) Jumbo 30yr: 6.44% (from 6.48%) | Points: 0.34 (from 0.35) FHA: 6.14% (from 6.14%) | Points: 0.74 (from 0.68) 5/1 ARM: 5.53% (from 5.65%) | Points: 0.49 (from 0.41)

September 19 2025

Builder confidence levels continued kicking a sad little can down the same long and lonesome road. The September National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) held flat at 32, extending the streak to 17 consecutive months below the key 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. While the overall index isn't pretty, there was some positive movement in the component index that focuses on sales expectations over the next 6 months, which rose to its highest levels in 6 months. These expectations are responsible for keeping overall confidence from sinking to new long-term lows--largely weighed down by historically low buyer traffic. With affordability being a key concern, the recent drop in mortgage rates could help break that traffic jam, assuming it sticks. The rate outlook got a bit fuzzier in the 2nd half of the week as the average 30yr fixed rate ticked up somewhat sharply from the lowest levels in a year to the highest levels in 2 weeks.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Pricing pressure remains widespread. NAHB reported that 36% of builders cut home prices in September, with an average reduction of 5%. Meanwhile, 64% of builders offered sales incentives—still an elevated share by historical standards. Regionally, confidence was weakest in the West, where affordability challenges are most severe. The South tracked near the national average, while the Midwest and Northeast held relatively steadier, reflecting the persistent gap between high-cost and lower-cost housing markets.

September 19 2025

The Census Bureau’s latest Residential Construction report showed a mixed picture for August, highlighted by a sharp drop in building permits. Total housing starts (the groundbreaking phase of construction) fell 2.3% to a 1.398 million annual rate, led by a 3.4% decline in single-family starts to 906k. Multifamily activity eased 1.5% to 464k but continues to trend higher over the past several months, signaling sustained demand for apartments and other multi-unit projects. The standout shift came on the permitting side. Total permits dropped 6.8% to a 1.264 million annual pace—one of the steepest monthly declines in years. Single-family permits slid 5.1% to 827k and multifamily permits fell 9.3% to 437k. Importantly, though, permits had been running well above starts for much of the year. This latest pullback brings the two measures into closer alignment, suggesting a more balanced pipeline. Note the broadly flat pace of housing starts.  This suggests a fairly steady pace of construction for now.